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Saturday, March 16, 2013

Bekhayaali

Aaj lafz bewafa hain, shaayari harjaai hai
Kalam meri muflis hai, ya dard ki mehangai hai
Aawazon ki khamoshi mein is shaayar ki ruswaayee hai.
Kyun dil aaj yun chup hai, kyun dimaag aaj khaali hai
Kyun mashaal-e-kalam hai bujhi hui,
kyun shaayar aaj sawaali hai.
Sher jo sitaaron se chamakte the
Aasmaan-e-mushaayaron mein
Kyun bandh gaye hain woh aaj
Bekhaayali ke daayaron mein
Nagmein jo goonjte the kisi fankaar ki taanon mein
Kahaan kho gaye hain wo in bheed bhare zamaanon mein
Jo lafz kabhi milte the dil ke galiyaron mein..
Gazal banne ko khade hain aaj wo kataaron mein
Kalam ki mayoosi jo is kagaz ko tarsaayee hai
Hai ik khaalipan ya dil ki gehrai hai?
Jisne bas abhi abhi shaayari ki shakl paaye hai.
-Nitesh

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Game Theory: Why Death Penalty is not the best punishment for rape cases


Game Theory: Why Death Penalty is not the best punishment for rape cases

While there is a huge outcry demanding death penalty for rape cases, regret analysis helps to explain why it is not the best punishment for such crimes.
Naturally, losing one’s own life is costlier than life imprisonment for a person. Therefore the pay-off for a criminal will be higher if sentenced to death as compared to being jailed for life. For the purpose of calculations, let us assume the following.
Punishment
Payoff
Hanged till death
10
Jailed for life
7

If a criminal kills the rape victim, chances of his being caught are reduced because the victim will not survive to identify him. Therefore naturally the probability of the criminal being caught is less if he kills the victim as opposed to if he does not kill her. For the purpose of calculations, let us assume the following.

Perceived probability of being caught

A
Criminal's actions
Kill
0.75
Do not kill
1

(Perceived probability of not being caught) = 1 – (perceived probability of being caught)
Therefore

Perceived probability of not being caught

B = 1-A
Criminal's actions
Kill
0.25
Do not kill
0

Regret Analysis for the criminal will therefore will be as per the following table




Table 1: Regret analysis for rapist.


Death Penalty
 Life imprisonment
Perceived probability of being caught
Perceived probability of not being caught
Pay-off if caught
Pay off it not caught
Total Pay-off
Payoff if caught
Pay off it not caught
Total Pay-off
A
B = 1-A
C
D
E=A*C+B*D
F
G
H=A*F+B*G
Criminal's actions
Kill
0.75
0.25
10
0
7.5
10
0
7.5
Do not kill
1
0
10
0
10
7
0
7

If death is the punishment for rape, then the criminal will have to pay less (7.5 as compared to 10) if he chooses to kill the girl. Therefore he will kill the girl.
If the punishment for rape is life imprisonment, the payoff for the criminal will be less if lets the girl survive (7 as compared to 7.5 if he kills the girl) therefore he will not kill the girl. Thus we see that death penalty is not the best punishment for the crime.
Relationship between death penalty and efficiency of police at catching the criminal
If
perceived probability of being caught if the criminal kills the girl
< 
Payoff for being hanged
perceived probability of being caught if the criminal does not kill the girl
payoff for being jailed for life

then the total payoff for the criminal will be lower if he kills the girl than if he lets the girl survive. Therefore in this case he will choose to kill the girl and death penalty in such a situation will be a better punishment.


Death Penalty
 Life imprisonment
Perceived probability of being caught
Perceived probability of not being caught
Pay-off if caught
Pay off it not caught
Total Pay-off
Payoff if caught
Pay off it not caught
Total Pay-off
A
B = 1-A
C
D
E=A*C+B*D
F
G
H=A*F+B*G
Criminal's actions
Kill
0.6
0.4
10
0
6
10
0
6
Do not kill
1
0
10
0
10
7
0
7
This means that if the police is more efficient at catching rapists than murderers, then the rapist will have a tendency to kill the girl.

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

I've Lost You

I’ve lost you.
Never before did I feel so alone.
As I stood today like a stone.
Ah! from my life now you’re gone.

Opened Facebook and your wedding pics
Weren’t far away but a few mouse clicks
And it hurt a lot, it pains a lot
In the end this is all I’ve got.

Now you aren’t the girl, you aren’t the friend.
Love letters to whom I wished to send.
One with whom, my life I should spend.
Those dreams, which you’ve put to an end.

It feels now that I am half dead
But I know there is, a life ahead
Which I got to live, and need to move on.
Even when darling, you’ve gone.

Now no more meetings, no more calls,
Now I need to forget it all.
Wouldn’t think of you now, wouldn’t even see
You in my dreams, O dear Nimkee.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Help!

Its night
and I fight
in the hope of new light,
but its still dark

Out of race
Out of space
Drowning in
a silent disgrace,
I walk and its still dark

Walking in town
when voices are down
silence prevails
and death hails

When every tomorrow
is like a bundle of sorrows
and the life that you borrow
is not yours

When someone on your side
Rips ur souls wide
and you still decide
to continue your stride

And you walk alone
as a moving stone
and reach your abode
to boil and explode.

Sunday, September 25, 2005

I have found you

I have found you
For you only does beat my heart,
You are so cute, you're so smart.
I am no Taylor, nor Shakespeare,
But my words are true I swear.
To you I am attracted
From my path I have diffracted.
But to write these lines you are the driving force,
To inspire me you're the only source
For you only I would like to sing,
With you and a plectrum and a guitar string.
You are hot as chilli and cold as snow,
These lines are for you but you don't know
I like your laughter, I like your smile,
I admire you and your childish style.
You are in my eyes, you are in my dreams,
You are in my heart, you are in my stream.
Joys and sorrows with you I want to share,
But to speak to you I hardly dare.
My courage is cool, as cool as snow.
But my feelings are bursting like a volcano.
For you only are endeavours of mine
Just come to my life and let it shine.
Please come soon, I am waiting for thee
Please don't refuse, O dear Nimkee .

--Nitesh

I search for you

This poetry was written in the year 2000, when I was looking for a friend...
Here it goes...

I search for someone
Someone to love and someone to commend
Someone to borrow from and someone to lend
Joys and sorrows, tears and smiles
Someone to be delighted and someone to rile
Someone to listen to and someone to ask
Someone who can help me in my task
Someone to play and someone to sing
Someone to write to and someone to ring

I search for someone
Someone of my thoughts, someone of my dreams
Someone of my choice, someone of my stream
Someone to enjoy with a peg of wine
Someone so cute someone so fine
Someone so beautiful someone so sweet
Someone whom I am crazy to meet
Someone so serene, someone so polite
Someone whose name can fill me with delight

Someone who is patient, someone who is cool
On my heart, someone who can rule
Someone who is fair, someone who is true
O dear friend, I search for you.

--Nitesh